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How do the results change if the preflop raiser has a playable hand that is still inferior to the
big blind? If the preflop raiser has a weak draw, such as a gut straight, pair of overcards, or
even small pair, then a check-raise remains the better play because it may give adequate odds
to the opponent to call a second flop bet.
Example 1b. Big blind holds 5c 5h. Button holds Ad 2h.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.
A check-raise puts 7.5 small bets in the pot. The Ad 2h must feel vulnerable, but probably
believes any Ace, 2, or running diamonds will be good for a win. Counting five outs (not
including runner-runner backdoor draws), the preflop raiser is a 42:5 underdog, or about 8.4
to 1. A check-raise can actually marry the Ad 2h to the pot because the size appears to be large
enough to attempt a suckout with implied odds. Of course, the button does not really have five
outs in this instance. If aware of the big blind's strength, the button would fold quickly.
Example 1c. Big blind holds 5c 5h. Button holds Ah Kh.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.
Once more, many opponents will count all six of their outs, figuring they are only a 41:6 ~ 7:1
underdog. With 7.5 small bets in the pot, the check-raise may actually help pull the opponent
into the pot for a bad call.
Betting out does secure extra profit against a particular type of opponent. Specifically, there
are some aggressive players who believe any player who would bet out rather than check-raise
must have a weak hand or draw. They will match their assumption by raising hastily with as
little as ace-high when they would have folded to a check-raise. These players are making a
powerful raise if against opposition that does only bet out with weak hands or draws.
However, when facing a solid hand, the raiser is throwing away money; our job is to make sure
they are throwing away their money to us.
There is one final consideration. If we bet out with a strong hand, when will we check-raise on
the flop? In other words, the big blind should not only check-raise with strong hands; it is too
predictable. Yet, the big blind must make check-raising a tool in their game. If the big blind
were to only check with the intention of folding, then the preflop raiser would have an easy
bluffing opportunity and no fear of reprisal. More importantly, such predictability would only
increase the preflop raiser's positional advantage.
The only real disaster occurs when the preflop raiser sniffs out the big blind's strength and lays
down a strong holding such as top or middle pair because they were able to make a good read.
It is for that reason that we must disguise our big hands and not play them uniquely from
other holdings. Likewise, marginal hands that want the preflop raiser to fold cannot be played
radically different.
Scenario 2. Vulnerable Pairs
There is a fundamental truth in short-handed poker. When only two opponents see a flop,
there is a good chance neither player will make a hand (i.e. pair or better). If the big blind does
make a pair, especially top pair, then it should be assumed that the big blind holds the best
hand. However, even top pair is vulnerable. Let's look at a couple possibilities to illustrate
whether the check-raise or bet out is preferable.
Example 4a. Big blind holds Jc Th. Button holds Jd 9d.
Flop is Td 8c 3c.
In this scenario, the button has a good draw. There is going to be action against a check-raise
or a bet out on the flop. Many opponents would semibluff raise with the open-ended straight
draw and position to gain a free card (I certainly would), and some opponents would also 3-bet
on the flop to attempt to gain a free card (again, I would.) Either way, let's assume as the big
blind, we would not reraise with our mediocre pair. Instead, we'd like to see the turn, where we
can bet out again to put the button to the test.
" Betting out adds 4 small bets, for a total of 8.5 bets in the pot.
" Betting out wins an average of (.67 * 8.5 = 5.695) small bets/hand for a profit of 3.695 small bets/hand.
" Check-raising adds 6 small bets, for a total of 10.5 bets in the pot.
" Check-raising wins an average of (.67 * 10.5 = 7.035) small bets/hand for a profit of 4.035 small
bets/hand.
In other words, check-raising earns extra profit because the big blind is still a favorite. Similar
results would occur if the button only called, rather than raised. In fact, if the button held a
lesser draw, the check-raise would yield still healthier profits.
Example 4b. Big blind holds Jc Th. Button holds Ad Kc.
Flop is Td 8c 3c.
Assuming the button would call either a bet or a check-raise, the big blind wants to check-
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